PERAMALAN EKSPOR LUAR NEGERI BANTEN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMAX

Authors

  • Saeful Hidayat BPS Provinsi Banten
  • Nisrina Hakim BPS Provinsi Banten

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46306/lb.v2i2.75

Keywords:

forecasting Banten exports, PMI ISM, ARIMAX model, peramalan ekspor Banten, peramalan ekspor Banten, PMI ISM Amerika Serikat, model ARIMAX

Abstract

Forecasting Banten exports is one of the important elements for formulating economic growth targets in the development planning document prepared by the Banten Provincial Government. The purpose of this study is to forecast exports by utilizing export data from the BPS and the United States manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) which is derived from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). The results showed that the ARIMAX model has a very good forecasting ability. This is indicated by the MAPE value which reached 8.84 percent. However, forecasting accuracy will decrease as the forecasting time span increases

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Published

2021-08-30

How to Cite

Hidayat, S., & Hakim, N. . (2021). PERAMALAN EKSPOR LUAR NEGERI BANTEN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMAX. Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika Dan Statistika, 2(2), 204-213. https://doi.org/10.46306/lb.v2i2.75